Performance Evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index Using Lead Profiles and BVAR Models

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes. Second, it analyzes the statistical properties and performance of the new indexes by comparing the lead profiles of the new and old indexes as well as their out-of-sample forecasting performance, using the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) method. The new indexes show improved performance in dating employment cycle chronologies. The lead profile test demonstrates that superiority in a rigorous, non-parametric statistic fashion. The mixed evidence on the BVAR forecasting experiments illustrates the truth in the Granger and Newbold (1986) caution that leading indexes properly predict cycle turning points and do not necessarily provide accurate forecasts except at turning points, a view that our results support.

Volunteers Opening Doors: the Five Keys to Lead Safety

Millions of houses and apartments built before 1978 have paint that contains lead. Chips, dust, and fumes from this paint can be very dangerous if they are not handled properly. Lead is particularly hazardous to unborn babies, infants, and young children. Volunteers in painting and housing-rehabilitation programs often work in homes that contain lead paint. The work they perform can create a lead hazard if they disturb this paint and produce paint chips or dust. Volunteers Opening Doors is a video program for these volunteers. It explains how volunteers can protect housing residents,themselves, and their families from lead poisoning by using the five keys to lead safety: 1. Protect residents and their belongings. 2. Prepare the work area. 3. Protect yourself from dust and debris. 4. Work wet. 5. Work clean.

Can a Newly Proposed Mechanism for Allocating Contracts in U.S. Electricity Wholesale Markets Lead to Lower Prices? A Game Theoretic Analysis

This study of the wholesale electricity market compares the cost-minimizing performance of the auction mechanism currently in place in U.S. markets with the performance of a proposed replacement. The current mechanism chooses an allocation of contracts that minimizes a fictional cost calculated using pay-as-offer pricing. Then suppliers are paid the market clearing price. The proposed mechanism uses the market clearing price in the allocation phase as well as in the payment phase. In concentrated markets, the proposed mechanism outperforms the current mechanism even when strategic behavior by suppliers is taken into account. The advantage of the proposed mechanism increases with increased price competition.